As the Tariffs Turn

US Revises Tariffs on Metals, Keeps 50% on Major Imports 

The US has revised its metal tariffs, maintaining a 50% rate on most imported steel, aluminum and copper products while simplifying the structure to exempt goods with less than 15% metal content. Products made abroad using American metals will face a 10% tariff, and certain industrial equipment will be tariffed at 15% through 2027. The changes aim to support domestic manufacturing and address businesses' concerns about the complexity of the previous tariff system. 

From ‘Forecast Accuracy’ to ‘Forecast Tolerance’

Manufacturing is shifting from forecast accuracy to forecast tolerance as constant disruption becomes the norm, writes Avi Reichental, CEO of Quickparts. Companies are focusing on building systems that can absorb change without breaking, underscoring the importance of flexibility and agility over traditional inventory management. 

USMCA Debate Heats Up as Transshipment Data Soars 

US trade officials testified before Congress, defending trade policy amid rising Canada-US tensions, as new data shows tariff circumvention via USMCA routes has surged 76% year-over-year, with rerouted imports topping $300 billion. USMCA's formal joint review, beginning in July 2026, is shaping up to be a high-stakes renegotiation over North American trade rules.   

Podcast: Tariffs Highlight the Gap Between Prepared and Unprepared Manufacturers 

As tariffs continue to reshape global sourcing, manufacturers that diversified suppliers, regionalized production, and strengthened inventory strategies are pulling ahead, while others scramble to react to mounting cost pressure and supply instability. The widening gap is turning operational preparedness into a major competitive advantage.  

AI, not tariffs, emerges as key driver of US manufacturing boom  

“While the White House credits tariffs for the manufacturing rebound, market data shows top-performing industrial stocks are tied to AI data center infrastructure. Companies like Caterpillar, Vertiv, Coherent, and Bloom Energy are seeing record growth from supplying power systems, cooling, and networking gear to hyperscale AI projects. This pattern suggests the current industrial rally is more a product of technology investment than trade barriers.” RI Comment: Much of the investment fits both the technology investment and reshoring categories. Products such as servers and transformers have often been imported in the past. 

Industrial Policy 

Pentagon Courts Automakers in Weapons Production Push 

The Pentagon has approached automakers and other manufacturers about potentially boosting US weapons production, reminiscent of World War II, according to The Wall Street Journal. Senior defense officials have discussed the idea with top executives, including those from General Motors and Ford.  

Industrial Policy Means Much More Than Tariffs & Subsidies “The revival of industrial policy in this country since 2017 has centered on tariffs, subsidies, and federal equity investments. But these are only a few of the many industrial policy tools that exist, so it’s worth reviewing the others. Some are of limited immediate relevance to the US, but are still worth understanding, as other countries use them against us, and we need to respond effectively.” RI Comment: The Reshoring Initiative especially favors Currency Management, which is mentioned in the article, as well as the use of total cost of ownership (TCO) Skilled Workforce recruiting and training, which are not mentioned. 

Market Trends 

Hedge Funds Pivot to Bearish Dollar Bets on US-Iran Talks Optimism 

Options market data suggest weaker demand for bullish dollar call options than for bearish put options. Kenneth Rogoff, a former IMF chief economist, says in the longer term, “the dollar is probably at least still 20% overvalued.”  RI Comment: The dollar is 15 to 20% overvalued vs. most developed country currencies and 25 to 50% vs. developing countries, esp. China. This undervaluation is the root cause of our $1.3T goods trade deficit 

Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP) Chaos: How Texas and Houston are Impacted 

The federal MEP program, a 37-year-old network supporting small and mid-sized U.S. manufacturers, is fighting for survival under the Trump administration's push to eliminate its funding, forcing state centers to reimagine their models or lobby for restoration. Even supporters argue that if the program survives, it needs meaningful reform: better regional coverage, updated services, stronger partnerships, and more credible performance metrics.  

Steady Capex Activity Lifting Machine Tool Demand | USMTO March 2026 

U.S. manufacturers are continuing to invest aggressively in new equipment, with the value of machine tool orders up nearly 28% year-over-year in Q1 2026 despite tariff uncertainty and geopolitical instability. Rising automation demand, aerospace growth, energy infrastructure expansion, and reshoring activity are all contributing to sustained capital spending and growing production backlogs. RI Comment: Some of the increase was driven by inflation, esp. the impact of tariffs. 

A New Wave of Capital Is Pouring into Physical Industries as Eclipse Raises $1 Billion 

Venture capital is flooding into physical industries as investors double down on manufacturing, robotics, energy, logistics, and industrial AI, betting the next growth cycle is in the real economy. Eclipse’s new $1+ billion fund reflects growing confidence that reshoring, automation, infrastructure modernization, and supply chain resilience will drive long-term industrial growth and competitiveness.  

Workforce  

See Which Jobs are Most Threatened by AI and Who May be Able to Adapt 

A Washington Post interactive analysis examines projections for occupations at greatest risk from AI and automation. The data raises urgent questions about how productivity gains will shape the workforce even as reshoring efforts accelerate. RI Comment: Manufacturing may look increasingly attractive since “white collar jobs …. are first in line for AI shake-ups today.” 

Workforce Development Key to Manufacturing’s Future  

Anna Barensfeld, VP of Strategic Initiatives at Ellwood Group, argues that workforce development is critical to manufacturing's future - requiring a shift toward programming, electronics, and AI skills alongside traditional hands-on capabilities. She highlights regional coalitions like the Lawrence Mercer Manufacturers Coalition as models for building talent pipelines, and stresses that manufacturers must begin preparing that workforce today.  

Anxious Parents Are Spending More Than $50,000 to Land Their Kid a Job 

With the entry-level job market growing increasingly hostile to new college graduates, parents are spending thousands, and in some cases $50,000 or more, on private career coaches to help their college-age children land jobs. The surge in demand reflects a broader shift in how families are approaching workforce entry, with coaches now working with students as early as freshman year to build resumes and secure internships. RI Comment: We need the U.S. Dept. of Labor to stop promoting “College for all” on its websites. 

Why Vocational Training Is Becoming the Fastest Route to High-Paying Manufacturing Careers 

As manufacturers face persistent labor shortages, vocational training programs are becoming one of the fastest pathways to stable, high-paying careers in skilled trades and advanced manufacturing. Employers are increasingly prioritizing hands-on skills, certifications, and apprenticeships over traditional four-year degrees to build the next generation workforce.  

Action Items and Sponsor Highlights 

RI is proud to broaden its coverage and sponsor base to include Morris Group, one of the largest U.S machine tool distributors, and SEMI, the semiconductor association. 

SEMI  is a country-neutral global industry association connecting 1.5 million professionals from across the semiconductor and electronics design and manufacturing supply chain.  SEMI accelerates member-driven solutions to industry challenges through key programs including Advocacy, Workforce Development and Sustainability.  The SEMICON® expositions and events, technology communities, standards and market intelligence help advance growth and innovation in design, devices, equipment, materials, services and software, enabling smarter, faster, more secure electronics.

Morris Group, Inc. is proud to announce its sponsorship of the Reshoring Initiative, reinforcing a shared commitment to strengthening domestic manufacturing and advancing industrial competitiveness across the United States. For more than 85 years, Morris has supported American manufacturers through deep engineering expertise, a regional infrastructure with national reach, and enduring partnerships guided by its “One Source. Full Lifecycle Support.” philosophy. This sponsorship reflects Morris Group, Inc.’s ongoing commitment to advancing U.S. manufacturing by supporting reshoring efforts, strengthening supply chain resilience, and helping build a more competitive American industrial base.  Contact David Schwart to book an appointment.  

Take the 2026 Reshoring Survey 

The Reshoring Initiative®, in collaboration with Regions Recruiting®, is asking for your input in our 2026 Reshoring Survey. If you want better policy outcomes, this is one of the most direct ways to influence them. Take the survey now! Thanks to our sponsors, especially SEMI and the Morris Group, for distributing the survey to their constituencies. 

Select Media (RI authorship or quotes)  

Environmental Energy Leader: Reshoring, AI, and the Skilled Labor Crisis Collide 

Business View Magazine: The Top 5 States Benefiting from Reshoring 

Business Times: The World is Reorganizing; Small Towns Should Pay Attention 

Industry Today: The Art of Reshoring: A Better Proposal to Balance Trade 

IMTS: The National Question Should Not Be Whether to Reshore, But Rather How! 

Videos & Podcasts:  

Forged in Focus Podcast: Bringing it Back Home: Harry Moser on Reshoring, Risk and Rebuilding U.S. Industry  

SME Media: SME’s Advanced Manufacturing Live, Ep. 9 

Upcoming Events  

July 6 — Innovation Garage podcast  

August 6 — CNC Underground recording  

September 14-19 — IMTS — Chicago, IL 

October 14-16 — AMT MT Forecast — Schaumburg, IL  

Visit ReshoreNow.org for the latest news and upcoming events. 

As always, thanks to all our readers, our sponsors, and the companies that use our Total Cost of Ownership Estimator® (TCOE) to reshore. 

Remember to take the 2026 Reshoring Survey. 

Sincerely,  

Harry Moser, Founder 

Millar Kelley, Editor and Research Analyst 

Christy De Voy, Co-Editor and Research Assistant  

The Reshoring Initiative 

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